Sinn Féin leads the polls in a tight Irish election race

In the recent Irish general election, the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, has emerged with a narrow lead in the polls, securing approximately 21.1 percent of the vote according to exit polls. however, it is unlikely that the party will be able to form the government due to the strong performance of the two main centre-right parties, Fine Gael, currently led by Prime Minister Simon Harris at 21 percent, and Fianna Fáil with about 19.5 percent. Despite leading in the popular vote, Sinn Féin could find itself excluded from coalition talks as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have pledged to seek to form a government without it, similar to their coalition formation following the 2020 election when Sinn Féin also garnered the most votes. This election shows a continuation of divided preferences among the electorate, indicating that no single party can secure an overall majority on its own. As the results unfold, it appears Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will need support from smaller parties, like the Green Party, which currently polls at 4 percent, along with others such as Labour, which stands at 5 percent, and the Social Democrats at 5.8 percent. The number of seats required for an overall majority is set at 88, while the first gathering of the new Dáil (the lower house of parliament) is scheduled for December 18. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that coalition negotiations will still be ongoing at that time. This election follows a challenging campaign for Fine Gael, marked by significant blunders, and a budget roll-out that was designed to influence voter support through massive spending enabled by corporate tax revenues from foreign multinationals. Polling indicates that the race is still very close, and the outcome of these negotiations will significantly impact Ireland's future political landscape.