Cox Automotive reports September new-vehicle sales drop amid year-to-date growth
- New-vehicle sales in September 2024 are expected to drop by 16.1% from August and 11.0% year-over-year.
- Cox Automotive's full-year sales forecast remains unchanged at 15.7 million vehicles, with year-to-date sales up less than 1%.
- Despite the decline, factors like increased incentives and healthy inventory may lead to a slight recovery in sales in the final quarter.
In September 2024, new-vehicle sales are projected to decline significantly, with a forecasted drop of 16.1% from August and 11.0% from the same month last year. This downturn is attributed to fewer selling days compared to previous months and years. Despite this decline, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to rise to 15.9 million, indicating a potential recovery from a sluggish August. The overall sales pace in Q3 is anticipated to be lower than in Q2, reflecting ongoing volatility in the market. Cox Automotive maintains its full-year sales forecast at 15.7 million vehicles, which represents a slight increase from the previous year. The year-to-date sales figures show a growth of less than 1%, suggesting that while the market is experiencing fluctuations, it is not entirely stagnant. Factors such as healthy inventory levels and increased sales incentives are contributing to the market's resilience. The sales data for September will be heavily influenced by the number of selling days, making accurate comparisons challenging. Automakers are responding to market conditions by offering more aggressive discounts, which, along with recent interest rate cuts, may help improve household finances and stimulate sales in the coming months. As the election season progresses, further volatility in the automotive market is expected. However, the combination of improved affordability and incentives may lead to a marginal increase in new-vehicle sales as the year draws to a close.