How do holiday shopping forecasts work?
- The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday spending in the U.S. to hit $989 billion this season.
- Forecasts are based on economic indicators and help retailers prepare for staffing and inventory needs.
- Consumer preferences are shifting towards spending on experiences rather than gifts, indicating changing holiday shopping trends.
In the United States, holiday spending is projected to reach a record-breaking $989 billion this season, according to the National Retail Federation. This forecast is based on various economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable income, employment rates, inflation, and previous retail sales data. Experts like Seth Ketron from the University of St. Thomas emphasize that while these forecasts are generally accurate, they are not infallible and can be influenced by unexpected events such as natural disasters or market shifts. Retailers utilize these forecasts to prepare for the holiday season by adjusting staffing and inventory levels accordingly. Additionally, consumer behavior is evolving, with a recent Deloitte survey indicating a trend towards spending less on gifts and more on experiences. This shift reflects changing consumer priorities as the holiday shopping season approaches, defined as running from November 1 to December 31.