Hezbollah"s Deterrence Against Israel: A New Era in Lebanon

The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel escalated significantly after October 8, following a Hamas-led attack on Israel that resulted in numerous casualties. In retaliation, Israel launched a preemptive strike on Hezbollah positions, utilizing 100 jets to target thousands of launch sites across at least 15 Lebanese towns. This marked the most extensive Israeli assault on Hezbollah since the onset of hostilities. The assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr by Israel intensified the situation, leading to a significant retaliation from Hezbollah, which analysts believe has re-established a level of deterrence against Israel. Despite the recent period of calm following the August 25 attacks, tensions remain high, with both sides suffering casualties. Since October 8, over 560 people in Lebanon have died, including many civilians, while Israel has lost approximately 49 individuals due to cross-border attacks. Analysts suggest that while the immediate threat of an expanded war seems to have subsided, the internal political turmoil in Israel could provoke further escalation. The situation remains precarious, with the potential for renewed conflict lingering as both Hezbollah and Israel navigate their respective military and political landscapes.