Iran"s Response to Haniyeh Assassination: Deterrence or War?
- Iran has yet to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, raising questions about its intelligence operations and potential vulnerabilities.
- The country is focused on building new deterrence capabilities to avoid an all-out war, learning from the devastating Iran-Iraq War.
- Iran's reaction to Haniyeh's assassination may involve accelerating its nuclear program and utilizing proxies as tactical deterrents.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has left Iran contemplating its next move, as it has not yet issued a response. This delay has exposed potential weaknesses in Iran's intelligence operations, necessitating a reassessment of its capabilities. The historical context of the Iran-Iraq War continues to influence Iran's strategic decisions, as the ruling elite aims to avoid another devastating conflict at all costs. In the wake of the 1979 revolution, Iran established a security architecture designed to prevent all-out war, particularly after the trauma of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War. This experience has shaped Iran's approach to regional rivals and its military strategy. The country is now focused on building new deterrence mechanisms to safeguard its interests and maintain its influence in the region. Iran's response to Haniyeh's assassination may involve an acceleration of its nuclear program, which serves as a critical deterrent. Additionally, Iran may leverage its network of allied proxies to exert influence and respond tactically without directly engaging in conflict. This strategy aims to maintain regional clout while avoiding escalation into a broader war. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the potential for a conventional war with Israel, which could draw in the United States. Iran's leadership is acutely aware of the costs associated with such a conflict and is likely to weigh its options carefully before taking any decisive action.