Can Europe deter Moscow with sanctions and prosecutions?

Estonia, a country of 1.4 million people that was formerly occupied by the Soviet Union, has been experiencing escalating hybrid warfare tactics from Russia. Recently, Estonian border guards captured video footage of Russian soldiers stealing 25 buoys from the river that delineates the boundary between the two countries. This incident is part of a broader pattern of hybrid aggression, characterized by actions that are low-cost and quasi-legal, making it difficult for Western nations to respond effectively. In the last year, several European cities have faced arson attacks attributed to Moscow, highlighting a coordinated campaign of intimidation and disruption. The Estonian government has long been conscious of Russia's shadow warfare strategy, with citizens accustomed to various forms of intimidation, including cyberattacks that have targeted bank and government services since 2007. As a response to these provocations, officials emphasize the necessity of public acknowledgment of the threat posed by Russia. This is considered critical for fostering national resilience and effective defensive measures, such as enhancing the nation's cyber capabilities and preparing for further potential escalations. Despite their awareness, many European governments remain reluctant to act decisively against Russian aggression. Authorities often fear provoking a larger conflict and prefer to absorb such actions rather than risk triggering a tit-for-tat scenario with the Kremlin. Furthermore, existing legal frameworks provide limited avenues for addressing hybrid warfare tactics, creating a significant challenge for governments in justifying any counter-offensive measures. Experts like Marek Kohv advocate for a more aggressive stance, suggesting that by not proactively countering these tactics, Western nations are inadvertently allowing the situation to deteriorate. He argues that simply playing defense is ineffective, stating that without offensive actions, countries might only lose more gradually. Thus, the call for a shift towards offensive tactics is gaining ground, advocating for actions that could impose tangible costs on Russia for its ongoing hybrid war tactics.