Spain warns of 10.1% drop in exports to US amid looming tariffs

In Spain, the Chamber of Commerce has released a forecast indicating that the expected implementation of a 15% tariff on U.S. imports could lead to a significant decline in Spanish exports to the United States. This decrease is estimated at 10.1%, amounting to a reduction of approximately 1.841 billion euros in 2024. The organization emphasizes that while total sales to the U.S. accounted for only 4.7% of all Spanish exports, certain sectors could suffer more drastically. For instance, capital goods and semi-manufactures are among the most exposed sectors. The potential tariff comes as part of the evolving trade policy between the U.S. and the European Union. The Chamber of Commerce suggests that the decline in exports could vary significantly between different product categories. Notably, food products and tobacco are projected to experience moderate impacts at a reduction of around 2.6%, while capital goods might face more severe consequences with a potential 16.2% drop in sales. Additionally, chemical and pharmaceutical products could see a reduction in their exports by approximately 9.6%. These statistics reveal the varied vulnerability of different sectors to changing tariff policies. Nevertheless, the Chamber of Commerce advises caution in interpreting these estimates. They caution that the uncertainty associated with predicting the impacts of tariffs could shift the potential effects from a decrease of 7.2% to a maximum of 13.1%. This range underscores how specific product sensitivity and existing tariffs might influence final results. While the overall impact on total Spanish exports might seem limited, the repercussions for certain industries could be pronounced given their reliance on the American market. The Chamber of Commerce noted that past experiences, such as changes in tariff policies during the Trump Administration, may affect particular commodities like olive oil and wine, which may respond more dramatically to tariff changes. The report indicates the importance of considering the average tariffs applicable to different categories of goods before drawing final conclusions about the expected impact. In sum, the anticipated 15% tariff introduces complexities to trade relations and forecasts for Spain's global export dynamics.