Trump vs. Harris: Betting Odds Favor One Ahead of Debate
- Traders on Polymarket and BetUS predict Harris will win the debate with odds of 75% and 68.75%, respectively.
- Despite Harris's debate favorability, Trump is seen as the stronger candidate for the election, with Polymarket giving him a 52% chance of winning.
- The contrasting predictions highlight the complexity of public sentiment and the influence of polling data on perceptions of candidates.
The first presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is set to take place on Tuesday night, with betting markets indicating a clear favorite. As of Tuesday afternoon, Polymarket traders assigned a 75% chance of victory to Harris, while Trump was given a 25% chance. Similarly, BetUS showed Harris favored at 68.75% compared to Trump's 39.22%. Despite these predictions for the debate, the same markets suggest Trump is favored to win the overall election. A BetUS spokesperson noted that while Harris is expected to perform better in the debate, Trump is seen as the stronger candidate for the election. Polymarket traders also reflected this sentiment, giving Trump a 52% chance of winning the election against Harris's 45%. Real Clear Politics' average of six betting markets further supports this, showing Trump leading with 51.7% odds compared to Harris's 46.7%. Interestingly, PredictIt presented a slightly different view, favoring Harris with a 53% chance of winning the election, while Trump was at 52%. This discrepancy highlights the complexity of public sentiment and the varying interpretations of polling data. Harry Crane, a statistics professor, suggested that the liberal bias in polling data may influence perceptions of debate outcomes. He emphasized the need to consider the actual impact of debates on election results, noting that unless a debate is significantly one-sided, its effect on the overall race may be limited.