What Would Iran Do With the Bomb?

Iran currently shows no signs of weaponizing its nuclear program, yet the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East raise concerns about its potential to cross the nuclear threshold. Experts suggest that the situation in Gaza could motivate Iran to develop a nuclear arsenal. A nuclear-armed Iran would likely act more assertively on the international stage, enhancing its power in the Persian Gulf, a region critical to its national security. The Iranian leadership views foreign military presence in this area as a direct threat, which could lead to increased tensions with the U.S. and its allies. The dynamics of Iran's relationship with Israel would also shift significantly if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons. While Iran is unlikely to share nuclear technology with its proxy forces, the possession of nuclear arms would allow it to assert its territorial claims more forcefully. This could include pressuring the United Arab Emirates over disputed territories and threatening international shipping routes. Since halting its weaponization efforts in 2003, Iran has used its nuclear program to gain leverage in negotiations with global powers. A nuclear deterrent would enable Iran to act more independently, potentially improving its relations with the West while reducing its reliance on Russia. The Iranian government views a nuclear option as essential for its national survival and as a means to compel recognition of its interests by global powers. Historically, states like China have been perceived as 'rogue' when developing nuclear capabilities, yet they have since gained international standing. Iran's pursuit of a nuclear option reflects its desire for security and influence in a complex geopolitical landscape.