Undercounting Homicides in El Salvador

El Salvador's government, led by President Nayib Bukele, has faced allegations of underreporting homicide figures since the initiation of a controversial crackdown on gang violence in March 2022. Following a surge in gang-related violence, Bukele implemented the "régimen de excepción," which suspended constitutional rights and introduced aggressive criminal reforms. Initially intended as a temporary measure, this state of emergency has been extended 28 times, resulting in a reported homicide rate of just 2.4 per 100,000 people in 2023. Despite the reported decline in homicides, evidence suggests that the actual figures may be significantly higher. Marvin Reyes, head of the Salvadoran national police union, noted a troubling trend of discovering unmarked graves linked to gang violence, with at least 171 graves found since 2021. These discoveries indicate that many homicides are not reflected in official statistics, raising concerns about the accuracy of the government's reporting. The exclusion of certain types of homicides, particularly those occurring in prisons, further complicates the situation. Reports indicate a dramatic increase in prison homicides under Bukele's regime, yet these figures have not been included in official counts. Analysis reveals that homicides have been underreported by an average of 27 percent since 2021 and by 33 percent since the crackdown began, highlighting a significant discrepancy in the government's data. As El Salvador grapples with its security crisis, the implications of these underreported figures raise questions about the effectiveness and transparency of Bukele's policies in addressing gang violence and public safety.