European EV Sales Resuming Growth, But Too Slowly For EU 2030 Targets

Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to recover and grow their sales significantly starting in 2025, following a period of stagnation. This renewal is expected to result in a 24.7% market share for EVs, driven by factors including the introduction of new models, competitive pricing, and stricter EU CO2 emission regulations. While this growth is promising, it falls short of the EU's ambitious target of an 80% market share by 2030, prompting skepticism regarding its feasibility. The automotive industry faces significant barriers such as high prices and a lack of mass-market EV models. Consequently, experts have made varied forecasts regarding the market share for EVs. For instance, Matt Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research estimates that Western Europe will see EV sales reach 7.8 million by 2030 with a 57% market share, while EV Volumes projects an even higher share of 61.6% across Europe. However, some estimates predict a much more modest 35% share by 2030, citing the necessity for more affordable vehicles in lower market segments. As the automotive industry navigates these challenges, concerns grow that failing to meet EU emissions targets could lead to substantial fines, estimated at €15 billion, if key automakers cannot comply. This situation highlights the tension between regulatory expectations and market realities, emphasizing the urgency for manufacturers to align their production with both market demand and environmental objectives. With the introduction of key vehicles such as Renault's R5 and Stellantis's Citroen eC3 in 2025, there is hope for a turning point despite the uphill struggle the market faces.