OPEC cuts 2024 crude oil demand forecast again in September

In September 2024, OPEC released its Oil Market Report, indicating a slight reduction in the forecast for global crude oil demand for the second consecutive month. The report highlights that while demand growth is expected to be driven by non-OECD countries, particularly India, Russia, and Brazil, there are concerns about a potential slowdown in China. Despite these challenges, OPEC anticipates only a modest decrease in demand growth for 2025, adjusting its previous forecast from 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.74 million bpd. The report also projects that non-OECD demand will increase by approximately 1.6 million bpd, with significant contributions from regions such as China, the Middle East, Other Asia, and India. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to grow by a mere 0.1 million bpd, primarily driven by the OECD Americas. OPEC's outlook for global oil supplies remains unchanged for both 2024 and 2025, estimating growth at 1.2 million bpd and 1.1 million bpd, respectively. The backdrop to this report includes a notable decline in the international Brent crude price, which has fallen by 15% over the past month. This price drop is attributed to market expectations of an economic slowdown and speculation that the larger OPEC+ group may begin to unwind some of its voluntary production and export cuts in the fourth quarter of the year. Overall, OPEC's latest report reflects a cautious approach to future demand and supply dynamics, emphasizing the importance of non-OECD countries in driving growth while acknowledging the potential impact of economic uncertainties.