India's dam plans threaten Pakistan's water security

India and Pakistan have a long-standing conflict over water resources, largely governed by the Indus Waters Treaty established in 1960. The treaty, which allocates 80% of the Indus River system waters to Pakistan, has historically been a framework for water sharing and has established norms for behavior during conflicts. However, recent tensions have escalated as India has announced its intention to suspend its adherence to the treaty and proceed with the construction of four new dams. This unilateral move has raised alarm bells for Pakistan, as it would severely limit their access to water resources, potentially placing Pakistan in a vulnerable position with few options to respond. The implications of India's actions extend beyond just bilateral relations; they can set dangerous precedents in international law concerning water rights. Access to clean drinking water is a recognized human right, and India's potential withdrawal from the treaty would challenge this principle and could lead to an international crisis over water scarcity. Moreover, India’s dam-building plans are not only a strategic maneuver but also reflect growing environmental concerns in the region, as the construction and operation of dams can disrupt natural water flows and impact downstream ecosystems. On the geopolitical front, China's involvement complicates the scenario. With China expressing intentions to build a hydropower dam on its side of the border with India, the dynamics of water control in the region may shift significantly. China has been strengthening its ties with Pakistan, creating an alliance that may embolden both nations against India. Should China choose to utilize its control over water resources, it could retaliate against India's actions, potentially exacerbating tensions not only between India and Pakistan but also drawing in other regional powers. In addition, the construction of large dams invites vulnerabilities for the builders themselves. Flooding caused by dam failures can lead to catastrophic consequences, including loss of life and economic devastation, as evidenced by the impacts seen in other regions that have encountered similar engineering challenges. For instance, the Three Gorges Dam in China has been criticized for its environmental and social repercussions. Therefore, both India and Pakistan face risks in their water resource strategies, as they engage in their respective projects while managing the repercussions of potential water disputes.