Russian troops mobilize in Belarus for potentially provocative Zapad-2025 drills

In Belarus, on August 6, 2025, the first echelon of Russian troops along with military equipment arrived to prepare for the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises together with Belarusian forces. The Belarusian Defense Ministry confirmed the arrival, which aims to finalize preparations ahead of the drills anticipated to take place in mid-September. The exercise, which is among the largest military activities planned by Russia and Belarus, raises concerns for Kyiv and NATO, who fear it might serve as a pretext for renewed military actions amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Officials in NATO estimate that while the Belarusian Ministry claims over 13,000 participants, the actual number could reach approximately 150,000 troops, intensifying apprehensions regarding regional security. The specific locations where these troops will be deployed have not been disclosed, adding to the uncertainty about their intentions. Pavel Shebeko, the deputy commander of the Belarusian North-West Operational Command, pointed out that the exercises are meant to explore new strategies and tactics based on recent military conflicts, reflecting an evolving military approach. Previously, following the Zapad-2021 exercises, Russia and Belarus conducted the Union Resolve-2022 exercises, which preceded the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus poses strategic concerns, especially since these forces participated in the Ukraine assault, launching attacks from Belarusian territory. Although Belarus has not contributed its own troops to the fighting in Ukraine, the nation has played a crucial role in supporting Russia logistically. This includes facilitating missile launches and providing training for Russian conscripts on its territory. Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Muraveika's statements about conducting the drill away from the western borders suggest a tactical approach to alleviate regional tensions, however, Belarus recently indicated potential military activity concerns related to its neighbors, Poland and Lithuania, hinting at a reversal of strategy.