Asteroid 2024 YR4 poses higher risk to Moon, but no threat to Earth
- Astronomers have identified asteroid 2024 YR4 as being at risk of impacting the Moon rather than Earth, based on updated orbital predictions.
- Its updated impact probability for the Moon is 4.3%, increasing from 3.8%, though there's still over a 95% chance it will miss.
- NASA confirmed the rock poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond, offering potential scientific insights in case of a lunar strike.
In late 2024, astronomers identified a building-sized asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, which had initially raised concerns regarding a potential collision with Earth, being projected to have a 3 percent risk of impact on December 22, 2032. As researchers gathered more observational data, particularly from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope, they refined the asteroid's orbital predictions and discovered a significant reduction of the chance for Earth impact to nearly zero. What emerged instead was an increased likelihood of the asteroid striking the Moon, with updated estimations placing the chance at approximately 4.3 percent, up from the previous estimate of 3.8 percent. Despite this increased probability, there remains over a 95 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. The asteroid, measuring about 200 feet, could potentially represent one of the largest impacts on the lunar surface in recent history, should it collide with the Moon. This event may provide valuable data for future planetary defense strategies. The scientists analyzed the asteroid's physical characteristics, determining that it is likely composed of silicates and may have originated from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Its current trajectory has been affected by gravitational interactions with Jupiter, propelling it into a near-Earth orbit. Future observations are planned, as the asteroid will re-enter the observable range for telescopes after May 2025, with hopes for accurate monitoring during its passage in early 2026. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, mentioned the scientific significance of observing such an impactful event, as it could allow researchers to gain insights regarding similar asteroids that pose a threat to Earth. The ongoing exploration and understanding of 2024 YR4 are part of broader efforts to enhance planetary defense capabilities and prepare for potential risks associated with larger asteroids in the future.