Belarus emerges as a key player supplying arms to Russia's war machine

Belarus plays a significant role in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, specifically through its involvement in military industrial partnerships with Russia, Iran, and China. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Belarus's exports to Russia have dramatically increased, highlighting a deepening reliance on Russian economic support. By mid-2023, the dependence on Russia for Belarusian exports surged to between 60-70%, reaching over 90% in certain sectors, firmly situating Belarus within a broader framework of military collaboration crucial to sustaining Russian military operations. The military relationship has become unprecedented, with Belarus being described as a secondary arms manufacturing center. Notably, arms and military supplies have been increasingly funneled to Russia through Belarusian factories, which produce materials and equipment for the conflict. This clandestine operation is made harder to track due to the nature of the relationships Belarus maintains with manufacturers in China and Iran, along with an array of military exports that include ammunition, vehicles, and electronics. Belarus’s leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has embraced this strategic partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing a shared need for military collaboration to defend against perceived western antagonism. Despite gestures towards military readiness, there appears to be a calculated restraint within Belarus; Lukashenko refrains from outright aggressive military actions, likely to avoid unrest within the armed forces and broader public discontent. Instead, the joint military exercises set to proceed in September 2025 serve more as a display of solidarity rather than a serious escalation into conflict. Moreover, the interactions with Iran further complicate the narrative, as Belarus acts as an intermediary for weapons supplies while officially maintaining a stance of neutrality. Despite its supported relationship with Iran, no concrete evidence of arms or military goods exchanged between the two nations has been publicly documented. This situation highlights the intricate web of alliances and the opaque nature of military supply chains that characterize the ongoing conflict surrounding Ukraine.