Trump's strategy risks prolonging the war in Ukraine

Ukraine is facing unprecedented challenges as it continues to deal with the aftermath of Russia's invasion. As of 2024, almost three years have passed since the onset of this conflict, and the situation has grown increasingly dire. The recent election of Donald Trump as president raises concerns, especially regarding his previously proposed rapid resolution to the war, which may include forcing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. Trump’s approach has been met with mixed feelings in Ukraine, where some fear this could lead to significant territorial losses, while others hope for increased U.S. support if his tactics change. The Ukrainian military currently struggles against well-entrenched Russian forces, who occupy roughly 20% of what is internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory. Key victories by Russian troops, such as the conquest of the city of Avdiivka, have forced Ukrainian soldiers into a position of persistent struggle with limited resources and rotating forces. This is exacerbated by the gradual decline in humanitarian aid funding from Western nations, which had been vital in previous years, indicating a shift in international attention. In 2022, 90% of necessary funds for UN humanitarian efforts were raised, but this figure dropped to 75% in 2023, reflecting the increasing competition for global aid amid multiple crises. As Trump begins his term, he is reported to maintain military support for Ukraine, viewing this approach as aligned with his peace-through-strength philosophy. However, he is opposed to Ukraine's NATO membership until existing territorial disputes with Russia are resolved. Trump is expected to bring back a tough-love style toward NATO relations while pushing for a peace deal that may please Moscow without adequately considering Ukrainian sovereignty. His advisors propose a potential plan that emphasizes negotiations, that could require Ukraine to make painful concessions for the sake of attaining lasting peace in the region. As humanitarian needs in Ukraine grow increasingly complex due to the war and its associated crises, the international community’s response remains uncertain. Analysts warn that quick resolutions could look more like past failures, and the need for careful planning to ensure Ukraine's long-term sovereignty and security becomes paramount. Achievements of the past, like the post-war stability in South Korea, are looked to as benchmarks for what a proper resolution might entail, while the shadow of failures from Vietnam looms as a cautionary tale against rushing into peace agreements. The onus will be on the incoming administration to navigate these complex dynamics to ensure that Ukraine's plight is not neglected in the broader geopolitical landscape.