China plans to outpace the US in nuclear capabilities by 2030
- China is projected to surpass the United States in nuclear capabilities by the mid-2030s, aiming for over 1,000 warheads.
- The strategy involves psychological operations to undermine U.S. alliances, particularly in East and Southeast Asia.
- The report concludes that U.S. allies must avoid nuclear escalation and focus on strengthening conventional military forces to counter Chinese aggression.
China’s ambition for nuclear dominance is outlined in a recent report that analyzes its increasing military capabilities. It highlights how China aims to possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s. This military modernization is not just about the number of warheads; it involves sophisticated psychological tactics designed to weaken U.S. alliances in Asia. Specifically, China seeks to undermine the trust that U.S. allies, like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, have in America's nuclear defense commitments. By amplifying uncertainty about U.S support, China hopes to weaken the strategic resolve of its neighbors, allowing Beijing greater freedom to act, especially regarding Taiwan. The report details different strategies that China employs to intimidate these allies. Japan, which relies heavily on the U.S. nuclear umbrella but faces domestic opposition to nuclear armament, is a particular target of Beijing’s information campaigns. China leverages state-linked messaging to instill doubt about U.S. commitments, potentially preventing Japan from enhancing its own defense capabilities. Meanwhile, South Korea remains focused on the threat from North Korea, thereby seemingly disregarding China's growing military ambitions. This lack of urgency complicates U.S. efforts to build a united front against Chinese aggression. Amid these complexities, the report outlines strategic recommendations for U.S. allies, suggesting they should abandon traditional arms control pursuits due to China's ambiguous military posture. Allies should avoid pursuing their nuclear arsenals, as this could unintentionally escalate tensions. Instead, there is an urgent call for a strengthened focus on conventional military capabilities to deter China's advancements and reassure regional partners. This discussion is timely, as the Pentagon is preparing a global force posture review, indicating a potential shift in military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. This strategy reflects a broader understanding of great power competition, particularly under the Biden administration, while recognizing that the U.S. must actively counter China's increasing military confidence in the Asia-Pacific region.