Missile attack signals new climate of insecurity in the Gulf

In June 2025, a significant missile attack occurred near Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, reflecting a changing security climate in the Gulf region. The situation intensified when Iran launched six ballistic missiles, demonstrating the ongoing tensions and military capabilities in the area. While five of the missiles were intercepted by U.S. Patriot and THAAD batteries, the incident had broader implications for international trade and security. The attack shifted perceptions of risk for traders, insurers, and governments, as they adapted to a landscape previously defined by environmental and weather considerations. The financial ramifications of this new security climate were immediate and stark. Following the attack, traders began to mark energy prices by the hour, reflecting the urgency and volatility in the market. Additionally, investment strategists took a long-term view, assessing risks that might impact energy supply and pricing over the next decade. Spot quotes for energy surged, illustrating the heightened anxiety and financial pressures on long-term energy projects. At the peak of the panic, daily margins for these projects approached a decrease of nearly $3 million, emphasizing the dramatic shift in confidence among investors and energy traders. In light of these events, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, was brought into question. The attack prompted increased vigilance and changes in navigation methods, with reports of GPS spoofing and AIS blackouts on the rise. Ship captains were forced to revert to traditional navigation techniques, such as using paper charts and manual calculations, reflecting a new level of risk and unpreparedness in the region. This evolving security scenario also impacted the broader energy market and strategic investments. Projects like the $44 billion Alaska LNG project gained traction, highlighting a shift in focus towards routes that would bypass major choke points, including the Panama Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. Taiwan’s CPC signing a preliminary pact with Alaska LNG showcased a proactive move by countries to secure energy supplies amidst growing fears of regional instability, reinforcing the significance of adaptability in energy strategies as the Gulf confronts an uncertain future.