Tensions between Lithuania and Belarus

The Grand Duchy of Lithuania, a significant historical entity for both Lithuania and Belarus, has become a source of tension between the two nations, a situation that some analysts argue benefits Russia. While the differing interpretations of this shared history have not led to major conflicts, concerns are growing in Lithuania regarding the influence of the Belarusian diaspora and the rise of ‘Litvinism,’ a nationalist ideology claiming modern Belarusians as heirs to the Grand Duchy’s legacy. Lithuanian officials have reported receiving numerous emails from self-identified Litvinism supporters, prompting the State Security Department to clarify that while some members of the Belarusian diaspora may hold radical views, there are no organized Litvinism groups in Lithuania. The department views these communications as psychological tactics employed by Belarusian authorities to sow discord between the two nations, particularly in light of the ongoing political tensions exacerbated by the Belarusian regime's actions. Political experts suggest that the issue of Litvinism may have been amplified by Lithuanian politicians seeking to unify the public ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Concerns persist that this ideology could provide a basis for Belarusian claims over Vilnius, although it has not prominently featured in political campaigns. The Lithuanian government’s response has included stricter border controls and scrutiny of Belarusian arrivals, largely in reaction to the Belarusian regime's alignment with Russia and the ongoing migration crisis. As Belarus strengthens ties with Russia, the narrative of external threats serves to consolidate internal support for the regime, complicating its foreign relations.