Blinken warns of imminent nuclear threat from Russia

In late November 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved significant changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine. These updates expanded the list of scenarios that might trigger a nuclear response, including aggression by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear ones, which could be seen as a 'joint attack'. Additionally, this shift came amidst increasing tensions due to discussions among Ukraine's Western supporters around the use of foreign-made weapons to target deep within Russia. The changes raised alarms in Washington about the risks of nuclear escalation. Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted these concerns in a recent interview with the Financial Times, indicating that the probability of nuclear weapons use, even rising from 5 to 15%, is a serious matter. He expressed particular disapproval of Russia's doctrine updates, labeling them as 'irresponsible'. His comments reflect broader anxieties about the potential for nuclear conflict in a volatile geopolitical landscape. Moreover, Blinken revealed that there are indications China may have intervened in discussions with Russia, urging them to avoid deploying nuclear weapons. This could suggest that China is interested in preventing an escalation that could lead to a nuclear crisis. The US has long noted that Russia possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, and Russian officials generally characterize their nuclear capabilities as a last resort measure. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that Moscow advocates for measures to prevent nuclear conflict while asserting that their nuclear arsenal serves as deterrence against aggression. In this context of rising military tensions, particularly in light of the US military's global posture and its deployment of nuclear-capable missiles, Russia signed a security treaty with Belarus last month, enabling the placement of Russian nuclear-capable missile systems in Belarus. These systems are said to be able to reach targets across Europe swiftly. Thus, the overall situation presents a complex and precarious geopolitical environment involving major nuclear powers and potential conflicts arising from military posturing.