What’s Next for U.S. Policy in Venezuela?

Recent polling indicates that Gonzáles received significantly more votes than Maduro, contradicting Maduro's claim of a narrow victory. This situation presents the Biden administration with a critical opportunity to advocate for democratic reforms in Venezuela. By identifying influential figures within Maduro's government who may favor a transition, the U.S. can apply targeted pressure while promoting negotiations between Maduro's coalition and the opposition. The administration has so far favored diplomatic incentives over sanctions, although there are growing calls for more stringent measures if Maduro's oppressive tactics persist. A bipartisan resolution in Congress urges the use of all available diplomatic and economic tools to pressure the Maduro regime. Historically, the U.S. has offered sanctions relief in exchange for concessions from Maduro, such as the temporary lifting of oil sanctions last October, which coincided with an agreement for competitive elections. While the U.S. has allowed some oil companies to operate in Venezuela, a broader sanctions framework remains in place, limiting the country's oil sector and its global financial connections. Individual sanctions targeting military and political elites may be more effective than sweeping economic sanctions, but they also have limitations. Maduro's attempts to persuade elites of his ability to restore Venezuela's global economic ties are undermined by his post-election repression, which has led to increased isolation. The White House has an opportunity to engage with these elites, emphasizing the benefits of a democratic transition. However, this approach will require more complex negotiations than those preceding the recent elections. Coordination with Latin American partners, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is essential as they maintain diplomatic relations with Venezuela while opposing Maduro's regime. Although regional efforts to promote democracy may face challenges, the involvement of leftist leaders advocating for change presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. and its allies to support the Venezuelan populace in their pursuit of democracy and stability.