Iran-backed militias in Iraq consider disarmament to evade U.S. strikes

In early 2024, Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq, including Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH) and others, began discussions regarding the potential disarmament of their factions. These discussions were catalyzed by threats of airstrikes from the U.S. following the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The context for these discussions arises from a series of recent military tensions involving these groups and American forces, particularly after U.S. officials expressed grave warnings about further actions if the Iraqi government did not take measures to disband these militias. Reports indicated that some militia leaders started to limit their presence in the country, fearing retaliatory strikes against them could escalate if their operations continued unabated. Moreover, these factions embodied an amalgamation of influence from Iran, given their participation as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during the fight against ISIS in Iraq. The narratives surrounding these groups shifted significantly post-2023, especially after a coalition dubbed the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" emerged in response to the conflict involving Hamas and Israel. Amidst regional instability, these militias once inclined towards military actions against U.S. interests expressed a desire for a more diplomatic approach to prevent aggravating their already precarious position. As the Iraqi government pushed for stability and took steps towards consolidation, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani sought to integrate these militias into formal political structures, allowing them some voice within the government. Analyst perspectives suggested that disarmament might not only prevent imminent military confrontations but could also be a strategic move to ensure these groups' inclusion within Iraqi political frameworks, thereby reducing Iran's overarching influence in the region in the longer term. Meanwhile, possible agreements hinted towards recognizing the Iraqi government's authority, something previously resisted by these armed groups. As negotiations progressed, reports indicated that the Iranian Quds Force played a role in urging these militiamen to maintain discipline and avoid confrontations with U.S. forces as talks began advancing. The picture emerging from these multifaceted interactions emphasizes a transition for these Iraqi militias from direct military engagement to political and diplomatic solutions as they attempt to navigate an increasingly complex geostrategic landscape, under the watchful eye of American power.