Estonia warns Russia commits to military force for shadow fleet protection

In Antalya, Turkey, on May 15, 2025, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna raised alarms regarding Russia's potential military actions. During NATO meetings, he described a recent incident where a Russian fighter jet violated NATO airspace shortly after Estonia intercepted a vessel named Jaguar, which was part of a shadow fleet. This fleet consists of aging tankers designed to circumvent international sanctions against Russia by carrying oil and possibly stolen Ukrainian grain. These vessels, often owned by non-transparent entities and flagged in various countries, play a critical role in enabling Russia to evade the price caps placed on its oil exports. The intercepted ship, Jaguar, reportedly entered Estonian waters without a flag and insurance, prompting the Estonian navy to step in. As the navy halted the ship, a Russian warplane appeared, violating NATO airspace and raising concerns about Russia's increasing militarization of its maritime operations. Tsahkna indicated that NATO aircraft were deployed to address the situation, emphasizing the seriousness of the incident and the need for heightened air patrols over the Baltic Sea. The shadow tanker fleet is believed to be owned partly by the Russian state shipping company, Sovcomflot, and serves to keep Russian oil revenues flowing amidst sanctions imposed by the European Union and other allies of Ukraine. In response to these activities, the EU has been tightening sanctions against numerous vessels tied to the shadow fleet, seeking to clamp down on Russia's evasive tactics for oil exports amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The meeting illuminated the broader implications of Russia's actions on regional stability, drawing attention to the necessity for NATO and European allies to remain vigilant. Tsahkna's statements highlight that Russia has now linked itself more closely to this illicit fleet, and the presence of military jets could signify a provocative and worrying shift in Russia's operational conduct within international maritime boundaries.