The Brief – Von der Leyen’s balancing act

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, faces a challenging political landscape as she navigates the selection of key EU executive positions. Her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) holds the largest representation in the European Parliament but lacks a majority, necessitating alliances with centrist groups and cautious engagement with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The ECR's support is crucial yet complicated by von der Leyen's commitment to climate policies that the ECR opposes. The Socialists & Democrats (S&D) have also expressed concerns about her proximity to far-right groups, warning that their support for her second term hinges on her maintaining a centrist stance. In late June, EU leaders' decision to withhold senior positions from the ECR further strained relations, prompting von der Leyen to craft her political guidelines with a centrist coalition in mind. This approach aims to ensure a stable majority in the European Parliament while adhering to her green agenda, which remains a point of contention with the ECR. The political dynamics are further complicated by external pressures, such as the EU’s top court ruling that limits the Commission's authority over certain acquisitions, raising questions about regulatory strategies. As von der Leyen prepares for her second term, the delicate balance of power among the various political factions within the EU will be critical. The ongoing discussions around water security policies and the challenges faced by companies like Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power in securing contracts highlight the broader context of EU governance. The upcoming conferences organized by the European Commission and the European Policy Centre will also play a role in shaping future policies. Ultimately, von der Leyen's ability to maintain support from diverse political groups while advancing her agenda will determine the effectiveness of her leadership in the coming years.