South Sudan risks sliding back into civil war amidst rising tensions

South Sudan, the world's youngest country, is currently facing escalating tensions that could lead to another civil war. The friction between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar has re-emerged recently as government troops surrounded Machar’s home, detaining several of his allies. Militant clashes, particularly with a group called the White Army allegedly aligned with Machar, have intensified, particularly in the northern Upper Nile state. Following the outbreak of violent confrontations, the German government temporarily closed its embassy, citing concerns over employee safety and the stability of the region. The United Nations has issued dire warnings, noting that the country is on the brink of falling back into civil war after a fragile peace that endured since a peace agreement was signed in 2018. That preceding civil war, driven largely by ethnic tensions between the Dinka and Nuer groups, resulted in over 400,000 casualties, alongside serious humanitarian crises affecting millions. The current conflict, marked by the activities of the White Army, raises fears that a new war could dismantle years of progress achieved since the last civil strife. In connection with the unrest, recent reports have emerged of airstrikes using barrel bombs believed to inflict harm primarily on civilians amid the military crackdown against the White Army. The increasing violence and resultant displacement of populations signal a deteriorating situation that the UN peacekeeping mission, consisting of approximately 20,000 peacekeepers, is struggling to manage without meaningful cooperation between Kiir and Machar. Additional complexities arise from regional influences, particularly concerning Uganda's involvement. Uganda's military presence in South Sudan has sparked tensions, leading Machar's SPLM-IO party to reconsider its commitment to the security arrangements outlined in the earlier peace deal. Meanwhile, the country is also grappling with humanitarian crises, including food insecurity affecting half the population and a cholera outbreak. With elections postponed until 2026, prospects for a democratic future are dim, raising alarms among international observers about the imminent threat of renewed conflict that could devastate not just South Sudan but the broader region as well.