Viktor Orbán is losing his Putin discount

Hungary has been reliant on discounted Russian oil, which has provided significant economic benefits, including low fuel prices for its citizens. However, recent sanctions imposed by Ukraine have raised concerns about the continuity of these supplies. Despite these sanctions, data indicates that oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia have remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in crude imports in August compared to July. This stability suggests that other Russian oil producers may be compensating for the loss of Lukoil's supplies. The Hungarian government, led by Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, has expressed frustration over the situation, emphasizing the potential impact on the country's energy security. Szijjártó's comments reflect a broader anxiety within Hungary regarding its energy dependence on Russia amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. The country has commitments to diversify its oil supply, but concrete actions have yet to be taken. Experts note that the price difference between Russian and non-Russian oil has been significant, with discounts of up to 30 dollars per barrel. This economic incentive has made it challenging for Hungary to shift away from Russian oil, despite the political pressures to do so. The MOL energy company in Hungary has reported record profits, further complicating the narrative around energy diversification. As Hungary approaches its next parliamentary election in 2026, the political landscape may shift, especially if Ukraine imposes further sanctions or if EU countries push Hungary to reduce its reliance on Russian crude. The evolving situation underscores the delicate balance Hungary must maintain between economic interests and geopolitical realities.