Iran-backed fighters cross into Syria to aid Assad as conflict escalates

Syria experienced a significant shift in power as rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a rapid advance against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. This offensive began on November 27, 2024, culminating in the fall of Damascus on December 9, 2024, marking the dramatic end of Assad's longstanding rule. The rebel forces achieved swift victories in key cities like Aleppo and Hama, with little resistance from the beleaguered Syrian army, which has been significantly weakened in recent years due to a lack of support from its primary allies: Iran and Russia. Iran's resources were stretched thin by its ongoing conflicts in the region, particularly its war with Israel, while Russia was more focused on Ukraine. As rebels seized control, the Syrian military was found to be unmotivated and poorly equipped, leading to widespread desertions and a rapid collapse. Consequently, Iranian and Russian military efforts in Syria diminished, further contributing to the regime's instability. Amidst the chaos, tens of thousands of Alawite civilians fled the cities fearing reprisals from advancing rebel forces, many heading towards safer regions along the coast. The overthrow of Assad's government has raised urgent concerns among regional players, including Israel, Turkey, and the United States, about the potential for a power vacuum that could foster extremist elements such as ISIS or further destabilize the broader Middle East. Israeli forces took preemptive measures by launching airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons facilities to prevent these munitions from falling into the hands of insurgents. This worry stemmed from the historical context in which Assad had utilized chemical weapons against his own people during the civil war. The United States, while having maintained a wariness of HTS due to its terrorist designation, initiated airstrikes against ISIS targets in conjunction with its long-standing Kurdish partnerships in northeastern Syria. The attitude of the Biden administration wavered, as concerns mounted regarding the treatment of civilians and minorities under a new government led by HTS. The international community now faces the challenge of navigating this complex web of affiliations and newly acquired power dynamics in a region with a bloody history of violence and authoritarian rule. The possibility of an inclusive political process remains uncertain, as HTS garners scrutiny over its past associations and the challenges of governing a diverse population in post-Assad Syria.