South Korea's fertility rate shows signs of recovery for the first time in nearly a decade

South Korea is experiencing a notable shift in its demographic trends, with indicators suggesting a potential rise in the fertility rate for the first time since 2015. This anticipated increase is attributed to a consistent rise in marriage rates over the past five months, alongside two consecutive months of increased birth rates. Dr Joo Hyung-hwan, vice-chairman of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, shared these insights during a keynote speech at the Global Symposium on Low Fertility and Ageing held in Seoul on November 26, 2024. According to estimates, the fertility rate is expected to rebound to 0.74 children per woman, an improvement from the historic low of 0.72 reached in 2023. Despite this optimistic outlook, South Korea’s fertility rate has been in decline since 2015, exacerbated by various social factors, including a high cost of living, housing constraints, and traditional gender roles that often place child-rearing responsibilities primarily on women. The situation worsened when the fertility rate fell below one child per woman for the first time in 2018, reaching alarming levels that raised concerns about population sustainability. This decline had significant economic implications, leading experts to warn that the country's population could shrink by half by the year 2100 if current trends continue without intervention. The recent increase in marriage and birth rates has led government officials, including those at the National Assembly Budget Office (NABO), to predict that this trend may not only mark a recovery for 2024 but could promote gradual improvements in the fertility rate through 2028. Various measures have been implemented by the South Korean government to tackle this demographic crisis, which has been labeled a “national emergency.” These initiatives range from providing financial incentives to families, improving work-life balance, and enhancing childcare support to make parenting more accessible and appealing. Even though the forecast is positive regarding an increase in the birth rate, the total population is expected to continue its decline due to increasing mortality rates that will outpace births. Therefore, while the fertility rate is projected to rise, South Korea remains in a precarious situation as it confronts the multifaceted challenges posed by an ageing society and increasingly low birth rates.