Hurricane season 2023: Unusual calm in the Atlantic raises concerns

As of early September, the Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing an unusual calm, which is surprising given that this period typically sees the most activity. Experts attribute this phenomenon to extreme atmospheric conditions linked to climate change, particularly those caused by fossil fuel pollution. Despite the presence of warm ocean waters, minimal disruptive winds, and ample moisture, storms have not developed as expected. This is partly due to lesser-understood atmospheric factors that are influenced by global warming. The Atlantic has been near-record warm since before the season began, but storms have been hindered by their northward trajectory from Africa, which is unusual. This shift may be connected to the interaction between the warm waters in the tropical Atlantic and a cooler patch near the equator, known as an Atlantic Niña. Additionally, the African monsoon is contributing excessive moisture, which can delay the formation of tropical storms, creating a challenging environment for cyclone development. Experts have identified a 'Goldilocks zone' for hurricanes, where conditions must be just right for storm formation. Too much moisture can disrupt the organization of thunderstorms, while too little can starve them of necessary fuel. This year’s hurricane season exemplifies this phenomenon, suggesting that such scenarios may become more common as global temperatures rise. While the current season has shown little activity, experts caution that it is not over. Historically, more than 40% of tropical activity occurs after September 10, indicating that storms could still emerge in the coming weeks. However, the prevailing conditions suggest that the season may not conclude positively, with experts predicting a resurgence of storm activity soon.