Jan 8, 2025, 9:32 AM
Jan 8, 2025, 9:32 AM

Defeating Hamas will take years, warns Dr. Eitan Shamir

Highlights
  • Dr. Eitan Shamir outlined that the military defeat of Hamas could take up to three years due to their developed infrastructure.
  • The IDF has reportedly degraded all of Hamas's 24 military brigades, but the group has recruited new fighters.
  • The extensive tunnel network remains a significant threat, requiring considerable military resources to address.
Story

In a recent analysis, Dr. Eitan Shamir, director of Bar Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, outlined the challenges facing Israel in its military efforts against Hamas. He emphasized that Hamas has had two decades to develop its military capabilities, including a sophisticated network of tunnels and a significant arsenal of weapons. This accumulation of resources makes it unlikely that Hamas can be defeated quickly, with estimates suggesting it may take two to three years to eliminate their military threat completely. Reports indicate that although the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed the degradation of all 24 Hamas military brigades over six months ago, new recruits have filled the ranks of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The current estimate of fighters in both groups is between 20,000 to 23,000, a slight decline from previous numbers, but still poses a considerable challenge. Ben Menachem from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs pointed out that many of these new personnel are not as well-trained as earlier fighters, complicating the IDF's task of neutralizing them. The ongoing operations also face a significant challenge due to Hamas's extensive tunnel networks. Dr. Eitan Shamir noted that approximately 40% of these tunnels remain undestroyed, with estimates suggesting hundreds of kilometers still pose a threat—some tunnels conceivably housing hostages. The IDF's efforts focus on destroying critical tunnels while assessing that many remain operational, raising concerns about the effectiveness of their strategy. Furthermore, the complexity of the military situation is exacerbated by the lack of sufficient Israeli forces to manage both military action against Hamas and the governance of Gaza. Critics argue that a comprehensive occupation and military administration might be the only way to ensure stability. However, this idea faces political resistance and skepticism, particularly from the outgoing U.S. administration, that advocates a reformed Palestinian Authority to take control in a post-conflict scenario. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refrained from proposing a substantial governance strategy for the region, leaving key decisions about Gaza's future contentious and unresolved.

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