Over a million jobs at risk if Africa-US trade deal ends

As of September 30, 2025, uncertainty looms over the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), set to expire by the end of the month. African unions have raised alarms, suggesting that the expiration of this critical trade deal could threaten over a million indirect jobs across the continent. Discussions in Washington regarding a potential extension have been ongoing, with indications from the Trump administration favoring a one-year extension. Additionally, African nations are exploring opportunities to forge new trade agreements with other global partners in light of AGOA's potential end, seeking to foster economic resilience and boost intra-continental trade. The ramifications of AGOA have been significant over its 25-year existence, serving as an economic backbone for many sectors within Africa. Notably, the garment industry in Lesotho and horticultural producers in Kenya have greatly benefitted from the trade preferences afforded by AGOA. Lesotho's textile sector, representing over 5,000 garment workers, relies heavily on the trade deal, which has provided vital employment opportunities, especially benefiting women and young people. Moreover, the Kenyan market has witnessed significant growth in its export-processing zones, facilitated by AGOA's preferential treatment towards Kenyan horticultural products. As AGOA's future hangs in the balance, experts suggest that African countries may need to capitalize on these uncertainties by diversifying their trade strategies. They encourage looking beyond traditional partners to explore markets in Asia and within Africa itself. Interviews with trade experts have revealed that the South African agriculture sector is actively seeking new markets, establishing connections in countries like the Philippines and China, thus demonstrating an adaptive approach to safeguard jobs and economic stability. As these discussions unfold, the implications for African economies are multifaceted, touching on increased migration pressures and the need for social stability amidst potential job losses. The caution voiced by union leaders emphasizes the importance of AGOA to many workers, indicating that without it, women and marginalized communities may face heightened socio-economic challenges. The uncertain climate around AGOA underscores a critical juncture for African nations, compelling them to navigate a path towards maintaining economic growth while seeking new partnerships that can bolster their development objectives.