Cease-fire in Lebanon holds despite Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rockets

In Lebanon, a fragile cease-fire that was established last November has seen a noteworthy degree of success despite episodes of hostilities. After four months of relative calm, an escalation occurred on March 22, 2025, when rockets were launched into Israel. In retaliation, Israel conducted airstrikes targeting locations in south Lebanon and Beirut, purportedly focusing on personnel and launch sites used by Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia. Since the cease-fire, Israel has routinely attacked Hezbollah targets, which raised concerns about the sustainability of the agreement. Despite these tensions, the cease-fire has managed to hold, indicating an unexpected resilience in the agreement. The calmness along the Lebanon-Israel border has persisted, with the Lebanese armed forces appearing to take active steps towards adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. For the first time in many years, the Lebanese military is working earnestly to disarm Hezbollah in the southern region, specifically south of the Litani River. In his presidential inauguration address on January 9, 2025, President Michel Aoun reiterated his commitment to establishing a state monopoly on weapon ownership, which aligns with international resolutions aimed at disarming Hezbollah. However, the Lebanese government faces significant challenges as it exhibits reluctance to confront Hezbollah directly. The fear is that any aggression towards the militia could reignite the sectarian civil war that has lingered in Lebanon. There are also political implications for the Lebanese government, particularly in light of Israel’s aerial operations in Lebanese territory continuing to provoke a sense of frustration among the Lebanese leadership. The situation is complicated by the ongoing Israeli occupation of strategic areas in southern Lebanon, which serves as a political irritant for Beirut. In response to the recent rocket attacks, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the Lebanese government is accountable for events occurring on its soil, a warning intended to compel the Lebanese authorities to take stronger measures against Hezbollah. Despite the criticisms and prevailing anxieties surrounding the cease-fire, there seems to be an overall functioning dynamic that, so far, indicates durability in the agreement between Lebanon and Israel, suggesting that while further progress is needed to disarm Hezbollah, the current arrangement is proving to be effective.