Maricopa County's Influence in Elections

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz are set to intensify their campaign efforts in Phoenix, Arizona, as part of a strategic rollout tour. The Harris campaign has established a significant presence in the state, employing nearly 100 full-time staff and planning to open 18 offices. This focus on Maricopa County underscores the campaign's belief that winning Arizona hinges on strong performance in this key region. Historically, Maricopa County has played a pivotal role in Arizona's political landscape. Notably, Barry Goldwater's narrow victory in 1964 was largely attributed to his success in this county, despite his unpopularity elsewhere. Similarly, George W. Bush reclaimed Maricopa for Republicans in 2000 and 2004, while Sheriff Joe Arpaio's controversial policies shaped the county's law enforcement narrative and influenced the Republican approach to immigration. However, the political dynamics in Maricopa have shifted in recent years. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump’s margin of victory in Arizona was significantly reduced, reflecting a growing suburban and urban discontent with far-right politics. The late Senator John McCain's legacy, particularly his popularity in Maricopa, further complicates Republican strategies, as evidenced by the Democratic victories in the 2020 elections. As Harris aims for a presidential bid and Ruben Gallego seeks a Senate seat, both will need to leverage the changing political landscape of Maricopa County to secure their respective victories in Arizona.