Iran and Hezbollah's Growing Presence in Syria

In 2015, Russia's military intervention in Syria significantly bolstered the Assad regime, raising concerns in the West about Moscow's intentions. However, following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia began withdrawing troops and military resources, including the S-300 air defense system, from Syria to support its efforts in Ukraine. This withdrawal has led to a power vacuum in southern Syria, which is being rapidly filled by Iranian and Hezbollah forces, complicating the geopolitical landscape for the U.S. The increased presence of Iranian and Hezbollah troops in Syria poses a potential threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Reports indicate that Hezbollah has expanded its operations from Daraa in the south to Aleppo in the north, establishing over 100 sites across the country. This escalation could divert Israeli resources and stretch the capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, as they may need to address multiple fronts simultaneously. While Russia has historically maintained a relatively friendly relationship with Israel, the dynamics may shift as Iran continues to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. The initial perception of Russia's withdrawal as beneficial for the West may be misleading, as it introduces new uncertainties and challenges in the region. To counter the growing influence of Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. may need to sustain its military presence in Syria and strengthen ties with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As long as threats to the Assad regime persist, the Axis of Resistance may be cautious in pursuing aggressive actions against Israel, which could lead to a multifaceted conflict involving both Israel and the U.S.