Trump Is Right About Taiwan
- Presidential elections typically do not focus on foreign policy, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024.
- The U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defense is debated, with some arguing it is in national interest while others see limited stakes.
- Given the high costs and low stakes involved, policymakers should be cautious about making commitments that could lead to conflict.
As the 2024 presidential elections approach, foreign policy issues, especially concerning Taiwan, are unlikely to play a significant role in shaping voter decisions. The Democratic Party's platform indicates a continuation of previous policies, emphasizing a commitment to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Former President Trump has suggested that Taiwan should contribute to its own defense, reflecting a broader debate within U.S. political circles about the nature of American support for the island. Key figures, including former Vice President Mike Pence and national security experts, argue for a strong U.S. stance in support of Taiwan, citing national interests. However, others, like Elbridge Colby, acknowledge that while defending Taiwan is important, the stakes for the U.S. are not existential. The potential costs of military intervention in Taiwan are substantial, raising questions about the feasibility and justification of such actions. The implications of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be manageable for the U.S., with only moderate economic and military consequences. While the loss of access to Taiwan's semiconductor industry poses risks, the U.S. is already taking steps to diversify its supply chains and increase domestic production of advanced chips. Ultimately, the U.S. must navigate a complex landscape where Taiwan holds greater significance for China than for America. Policymakers are urged to avoid commitments that could entangle the U.S. in a costly and risky military conflict over Taiwan.