Historian Niall Ferguson on Trump’s Impact on U.S. Democracy

Historian Niall Ferguson stated that claims regarding Donald Trump being a threat to U.S. democracy have diminished due to the outcomes of his first term. He emphasized that the political system effectively managed Trump's actions during 2020 and 2021, suggesting it would do so again if he were to serve a second non-consecutive term. Ferguson acknowledged Trump's ongoing legal challenges, including a federal case related to election interference and various civil cases. Ferguson also discussed the political landscape ahead of the upcoming election, highlighting the challenges faced by Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, due to her association with President Biden. He noted that despite economic growth, public dissatisfaction with inflation and immigration issues could impact her campaign. The historian pointed out the contrasting economic policies proposed by Trump and Harris, particularly regarding taxation. Harris has suggested a 28% tax on long-term capital gains for high-income households, while Trump has proposed reducing the rate to 15%. Ferguson argued that the next president will confront significant fiscal challenges, with the U.S. deficit in an unsustainable position. Ferguson concluded that Trump’s approach would focus on stimulating economic growth rather than raising taxes, while Harris would likely pursue tax increases to address the deficit. He believes that Trump's previous economic performance provides him with a credible argument for his strategy.