Experts doubt feasibility of creating an Asian NATO alliance

The concept of an Asian collective security alliance, reminiscent of NATO, has gained attention in Japan under the leadership of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru. In September, Ishiba advocated for this alliance in a paper presented to the Hudson Institute. His argument centers on deterring Chinese military aggression in the region. However, the proposal faces significant skepticism both within Japan and from the United States. Koichi Nakano, a scholar at Harvard, pointed out that President-elect Donald Trump has shown reluctance towards NATO and is unlikely to endorse an Asian equivalent. His skepticism reflects the broader hesitance of the Biden administration regarding Ishiba's proposals. Apart from the U.S., Ishiba seeks to foster cooperation with regional actors like South Korea. Despite shared concerns about potential neglect by the U.S. in dealing with China or North Korea, there remains limited public support for foreign security policy in Japan. The lack of interest among Japanese voters poses a challenge for the ruling party, especially in the context of rising costs associated with remilitarization strategies. Minilateral cooperation is emerging as a more viable alternative for regional nations. Although discussions surrounding an Asian NATO continue within political circles, significant obstacles remain. Article 9 of Japan's constitution restricts the nation's involvement in collective military actions, and there's a lack of engagement from the public. Political analysts suggest that for this security alliance to gain traction, substantial changes in both public opinion and U.S. policy would be necessary. As Japan navigates its geopolitical posture, the increasing complexity of international relations may prompt a reevaluation of its security strategy, focusing instead on bilateral dialogue and cooperation with neighboring countries like China. Ultimately, the future of security cooperation in Asia appears contingent on the evolving political landscape, both domestically and internationally. The persistence of the Asian NATO dialogue indicates Ishiba's commitment to his vision, but fundamental shifts in policy and public sentiment are pivotal for its realization.