U.N. warns of looming opium crisis as Myanmar production threatens to rise again

Myanmar has recently experienced a slight decrease in opium production as reported in the Myanmar Opium Survey 2024 by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. The survey reveals that the area devoted to opium cultivation fell by 4% to 45,200 hectares, while overall production decreased by 8% to 995 metric tons. This follows three years of growth linked to the political instability after the military coup in February 2021, which ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The civil conflict that ensued caused many farmers to return to growing opium, a trend previously seen in more stable periods. The report notes that the decline in production may be influenced by the intensified conflict within the country. Displacement of communities in opium-producing regions such as Shan and Kachin reduces farmers' capacity to cultivate and leads to restrictions on their movement. Despite this decrease, experts warn of the strong potential for future increases in opium production as the humanitarian crises exacerbate. Farmers have reported that economic need remains a primary motivation for cultivating opium poppies, suggesting that without alternative livelihoods, the cycle of opium farming may continue or escalate. In the context of the global heroin supply, the UNODC has indicated that while the current heroin supply has not fully adjusted to the changes stemming from production declines in Afghanistan, there is a risk that Myanmar farmers may increase their involvement in opium cultivation as other sources of income dwindle. The international community is urged to support agricultural resilience in Myanmar, to deter reliance on the opium economy for survival. With the ongoing volatility of governance and humanitarian conditions in the region, monitoring the situation remains critical. Overall, Myanmar's position as a key player in the global opium market and the underlying factors driving production necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the complexities at play. The long-term implications of these trends could play a significant role in shaping the landscape of illicit drug production and the associated socio-economic challenges in the region.