Smartphone growth slows as tariffs hit the market
- Smartphone shipment growth is projected at 0.6% for 2025, with the US and China leading.
- Economic challenges and tariffs are contributing to a decrease in consumer purchases.
- Buyers are advised to consider purchasing smartphones sooner rather than later to avoid potential price increases.
In 2025, global smartphone shipment growth is expected to reach 0.6%, driven primarily by the United States and China. The IDC (International Data Corporation) has reported a downward revision of predictions earlier in the year that anticipated a 2.3% growth, largely impacted by the ongoing trade war and tariffs imposed on imported goods. While China is projected to experience a 3% year-over-year growth, the U.S. is anticipated to grow at 1.9%. Market analysts attribute this slowdown not only to tariffs but also to broader economic factors, including inflation and employment challenges in emerging markets. The uncertainty stemming from the U.S.-China trade conflict has created hesitance among consumers, leading to fewer new smartphone purchases. Nabila Popal, a senior research director at IDC, noted that while the tariffs are significant, the economic climate plays an equally critical role in declining consumer confidence. Observing the changing dynamics, manufacturers like Apple are also facing headwinds in major markets like China due to increased competition and challenges in obtaining government subsidies for iPhone models, which could further affect their sales in the region. Even as growth projections shift downward, there are indications that the smartphone market will not remain stagnant. New product launches, particularly high-demand models like the upcoming iPhone 17, are expected to temporarily boost sales and prevent a more significant market decline. The iPhone 16 has already emerged as a top-selling model in early 2025, which provides some optimism that new releases can reinvigorate fading interest from consumers. Despite these challenges, experts believe that the decline is temporary, and while growth is expected to resume in 2026, it will still remain sluggish due to market saturation and rising popularity of used smartphones. Consumers planning to purchase new devices are encouraged to act sooner to avoid potential price increases driven by tariffs and economic factors. This situation suggests that being proactive in the smartphone market is crucial for buyers looking to manage their budgets effectively.