Colombia faces escalating violence and record coca cultivation amid failed peace efforts

Colombia has been experiencing a surge in violence as anti-government guerrillas gain strength under President Gustavo Petro's administration, which began three years ago. The situation has exacerbated concerns regarding Petro’s strategy of negotiating with multiple illegal groups, leading to increased territorial control and attacks by these rebel factions. Reports indicate that incidents of violence, including drone attacks and explosive detonations, have intensified, particularly as emerging groups, including dissidents from FARC, are vying for influence in areas previously neglected by the state. The anticipation of Colombia's presidential election in May has further stoked fears that insurgent groups will ramp up violent activities to assert their dominance. A recent incident involving a police helicopter highlights this troubling trend. While attempting to support officers engaged in coca crop eradication in the rural Amalfi area, the helicopter was targeted, leading to thirteen police officers’ deaths. Analysts have pointed to the growing use of drones as a significant shift in insurgent tactics, enabling these groups to strike without requiring traditional weaponry like anti-aircraft missiles. The year 2024 witnessed 108 reported drone attacks, with this number climbing to 118 in the current year, reflecting an alarming evolution in the nature of confrontations between the state and these groups. In recent months, violence has infiltrated cities, a striking example being an attack in Cali that resulted in multiple civilian casualties from an explosive-laden vehicle detonating near a military aviation school. The overall rise in violence not only underscores the challenges faced by the state but also raises urgent questions about the efficacy of current peace strategies. As the election approaches, the incoming administration will need to address the escalating influence of these guerrilla factions, which have taken advantage of the power vacuums existing in rural Colombia since the FARC disarmed. Existing data underscores the scale of the issue, with coca cultivation reaching a shocking 253,000 hectares in 2023, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Thus, the path forward for Colombia's government involves a significant reckoning with these complex dynamics, including heightened rates of forced displacement and the ongoing threat posed by insurgent groups. Experts predict that regardless of who assumes power following the May elections, addressing the insurgents' growing footprint in Colombian society will be paramount for restoring safety and stability. Colombia finds itself at a critical juncture as it strives for peace while grappling with the resurgence of guerrilla groups leveraging the state’s weakened presence in rural territories.