Markets Anticipate Trump’s Potential Return Following Assassination Attempt

In the wake of an attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel has indicated that financial markets are reacting positively to the prospect of Trump winning the upcoming November election. Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box," Siegel noted that the market tends to favor Trump due to his pro-growth, antiregulatory stance, which he believes could invigorate the entrepreneurial spirit that characterized his first term. Siegel's comments come as predictions of a Trump victory have surged, with PredictIt reporting a rise in his chances from 60% to 66% following the incident. Historically, markets have responded favorably to Trump’s election; for instance, the S&P 500 saw a significant rally of over 19% in 2017, driven by expectations of corporate tax cuts and increased profits. However, the following year, the index experienced a decline of more than 6% amid concerns over economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions with China. While Siegel acknowledged that Trump's proposed 10% tariff increase could raise investor concerns, he suggested that the markets might ultimately dismiss these worries. He emphasized that Trump often uses tariffs as leverage in trade negotiations, leaving the actual implementation of such measures uncertain. Siegel concluded that even if tariffs are enacted, various factors could mitigate their impact on the economy and markets.