Belarus Dictator Vulnerable to Russian Influence

As Alexander Lukashenko marks three decades in power, insiders reveal that his support for Russia's war in Ukraine and dependence on Kremlin funding have made his regime increasingly precarious. The Belarusian dictator has long repressed dissent, but recent insights from former law enforcement officials indicate that the ongoing conflict has created a bind from which he cannot easily escape. The pressure on his administration is palpable, with the suspected suicide of former Transport Minister Aleksey Avramenko highlighting the dire consequences of dissent within the government. Military sources report that approximately 70 percent of personnel support Russia's actions in Ukraine, often adopting narratives that vilify Ukrainians. However, many soldiers express a reluctance to engage in combat, indicating a complex relationship with the war. The loyalty of police forces appears to hinge primarily on financial incentives, as many officers fear losing their livelihoods and the stability they provide for their families. This economic dependency raises questions about the long-term sustainability of Lukashenko's grip on power. Public sentiment is shifting, with a noticeable divide between the police and the general populace. Citizens are increasingly distancing themselves from law enforcement, reflecting growing discontent with the regime. Despite the fear and repression that stifle dissent, insiders suggest that potential threats to Lukashenko's rule could arise from deteriorating relations with Russia, an economic crisis, or Belarus's deeper involvement in the Ukraine conflict, all of which could ignite mass protests.