Djibouti forum ignites fears amid Ethiopia-Somalia tensions

In Djibouti, Somali scholars, politicians, and traditional leaders gathered from November 25 to 27, 2024, for a significant forum aimed at strengthening regional stability in the Horn of Africa. This annual event, the eighth of its kind, was organized by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies, an independent and nonpartisan research group based in Mogadishu. Mursal Saney, the institute's executive director, emphasized the forum's role as a platform for nearly 300 delegates, including regional experts, to engage in discussions about pressing regional issues. Somalis from Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and other areas, including diaspora communities from the United States and Europe, collectively focused on the vital importance of the rule of law and peace in the context of regional stability. The timing of this year’s forum coincided with heightened tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. The disagreement stems from a memorandum of understanding signed in January 2024 between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-declared independent region that Somalia claims as part of its territory. This agreement grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease of a Red Sea port from Somaliland in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence. The move has been characterized by the Somali government as an affront to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, escalating concerns about a possible resurgence of conflict in the region. As discussions unfolded, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi articulated Somalia's desire for peace and stability, highlighting the nation's recent history of conflict and its ongoing struggle for sovereignty. Djibouti's Minister of Justice and Religion, Mumin Hassan Barre, also urged experts at the forum to contribute positively towards solving regional issues, indicating the belief that local knowledge and efforts will be essential in addressing these challenges effectively. Despite previous rounds of talks, mediated by Turkey, which failed to resolve the ongoing disputes, the forum represents a critical opportunity for dialogue and reconciliation among affected stakeholders in the Horn of Africa. The potential implications of the ongoing disagreement between Somalia and Ethiopia extend beyond bilateral relations, as regional stability remains precarious. The gathering in Djibouti serves to reaffirm the commitment of various stakeholders to dialogue, presenting opportunities to address underlying tensions methodically. However, the unresolved nature of the issues at hand, particularly how to manage post-conflict regions like Somalia and remain conducive to peace, continues to pose challenges to the overall stability of the Horn of Africa.