Trump's 50% tariff threatens coffee and orange juice prices

In May 2025, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil. Industry analysts immediately expressed concerns over the potential impact this decision could have on popular breakfast beverages in the United States, such as coffee and orange juice. Brazil is a significant supplier, providing approximately 90% of the fresh orange juice and 55% of frozen orange juice consumed in the U.S., as stated by USDA figures. This decision not only threatens the price but also the quality of these beverages, which could suffer due to reduced access to high-quality Brazilian products. As coffee prices have already been on the rise, averaging $7.93 per cup in late May compared to $5.99 the previous year, the tariff could lead to an increase of about 25 cents per cup. Analysts warn that this impending financial strain could reshape the global coffee market, exacerbated by ongoing challenges such as poor harvests due to drought conditions in both Brazil and Vietnam. The coffee industry in the U.S. is feeling the pressure as domestic production struggles to meet demand, particularly since regions like Hawaii and Puerto Rico are not designed for large-scale coffee exports. As a consequence, coffee drinkers may notice the price hike and quality reduction hit their wallets in the coming months following the tariff's implementation. Moreover, orange juice producers remarked that the tariffs would adversely impact both Brazil and the U.S. alike. Brazil relies heavily on the American market for its orange juice exports, as about 40% of its total orange juice exports go to the United States. Furthermore, it is emphasized that nearly all American brands of orange juice depend on Brazilian supplies for their operational scale. With further tariffs, both sides could face economic difficulties as cost increases make it harder to maintain affordable prices for consumers. Looking ahead to the enforcement of these tariffs expected by August 1st, the agriculture and beverage industries are bracing for significant changes. Consumers should prepare for potential price increases, which may lead to alterations in purchasing habits and preferences among coffee and juice drinkers. The quality concerns surrounding Brazilian coffee in particular highlight the challenges involved with sourcing from alternative suppliers. Without Brazilian imports, the U.S. food and beverage landscape could drastically shift, leading to a reevaluation of coffee and orange juice quality standards within the domestic market.