Putin and Erdogan clash over power struggle after Assad's downfall

In Syria, the regime led by Bashar Assad abruptly collapsed in December 2024, resulting in significant geopolitical shifts in the region. This development marks a culmination of years of civil strife that had persisted since 2011. Rebel factions, many of whom were previously untested, capitalized on the weakened state of Assad's military forces, which essentially abandoned their positions rather than engage in an effective defense of the government. This downfall represents not just a local political change but a broader impact on international relations, particularly concerning Russia and Turkey. Russia, which had invested significant military resources and support into sustaining Assad's regime, is now faced with a critical setback. President Vladimir Putin had hoped to expand Russia's influence in the Middle East through the backing of Assad. However, the rapid downfall of the regime has raised questions about Moscow's control over the geopolitical landscape it aimed to dominate. Analysts indicate that losing military bases in Syria would hinder Russia’s strategic objectives in the region, complicating its relationships and military operations. The power vacuum left by Assad's fall has caused concern about sectarian violence, particularly regarding the Alawite population, who held prominent roles during Assad's reign. Initially, expectations were high for widespread reprisals, yet reports suggest that the extent of sectarian violence has been limited thus far. Despite this, a series of revenge killings has occurred, indicating underlying tensions that could escalate if not managed properly. The interim government formed by rebel factions is attempting to stabilize the situation while also expressing intentions to hold accountable those responsible for abuses under Assad's regime. Meanwhile, the dynamics of Turkey and Russia's relationship have shifted dramatically since the regime's downfall. Turkey had supported the rebels, aiming to diminish Russian influence in the region. Analysts predict that although their political interests have often clashed, mutual economic ties might prevent a complete fallout between them. Nonetheless, as Turkey seeks to assert itself amidst these changes, it remains to be seen how these nations will navigate their newly redrawn boundaries of power. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the long-term implications of Assad’s ouster for Syria's stability and the geopolitical framework in the Middle East.