Iceland votes to reconsider EU membership amid rising support

Iceland's snap election on November 30, 2024, has reignited the debate surrounding the country's potential EU membership, an issue that has been contentious for years. In the lead-up to the election, shifting public opinion has been noted, with recent polls showing over 45% of voters in favor of EU membership, while 35% oppose it. This change in sentiment comes after a prolonged period of lower support for joining the EU, which many attribute to the current cost-of-living crisis in Iceland. Voters increasingly believe that EU membership could help stabilize the economy by eliminating trade barriers and reducing exchange-rate volatility. The ongoing impacts of inflation and high-interest rates have also reinvigorated discussions about adopting the euro, suggesting that economic considerations are at the forefront of voters' minds. The political landscape has shifted significantly, reflecting the repercussions of both local crises, such as volcanic eruptions affecting tourism and infrastructure, and international events like the ongoing war in Ukraine. These factors have led to calls for Iceland to strengthen ties with its allies and reconsider its stance towards EU integration. The Reform Party is one of the leading parties advocating for a referendum on EU membership if it secures a victory in the election, whereas the Social Democratic Alliance expresses caution, stating that a referendum may lead to further division among the populace. Current polling data indicates a possibility of a coalition government forming between pro-EU parties, which might facilitate a referendum within the next four years regarding EU membership negotiations. Iceland had previously sought EU membership in 2009, following a financial crisis, but negotiations were halted in 2013, which illustrates the long-standing complexity of this issue.