Trump gains momentum in 2024 race against Harris
- Polling expert Nate Silver reports that Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris stands at 41.6%.
- Harris's expected post-convention support boost did not materialize, and her choice of running mate has been criticized.
- The race is currently viewed as a toss-up, with Trump's recent gains indicating a competitive election ahead.
Recent polling data indicates a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race, with Donald Trump now holding a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Kamala Harris's 41.6%. This marks Trump's highest probability of victory since late July. The analysis by Nate Silver highlights that while Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote, the Electoral College dynamics favor Trump, who is projected to secure 274 votes against Harris's 263. The polling landscape has changed notably since the Democratic National Convention, where Harris was expected to gain momentum. However, she did not experience the anticipated boost in support, leaving the race largely unchanged. Silver pointed out that Harris's choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, may have been a strategic error, particularly in light of the importance of swing states. Silver's commentary suggests that the enthusiasm for Harris following President Biden's withdrawal may have been temporary. He also criticized her decision to retain many of Biden's campaign team members, which could hinder her ability to connect with voters seeking a fresh approach. Overall, Silver's model categorizes the race as a toss-up, indicating that while Trump has gained momentum, the competition remains tight. The potential for an Electoral College-popular vote split could further complicate Harris's path to victory, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the upcoming election.