NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season for 2025

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released predictions for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. These forecasts indicate that atmospheric and oceanic conditions will likely lead to above-average hurricane activity. NOAA's estimates suggest a range of 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 expected to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 of those reaching major hurricane status, categorized at 3 or above with sustained winds exceeding 111 mph. The predictions come after a series of above-average seasons over the past few years. Specifically, NOAA expressed a 60% probability for an above-normal season, alongside a 30% chance for near-normal activity and a mere 10% chance of below-normal activity. The agency's forecasts are based on various influencing factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, low vertical wind shear, and the neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation prevalent in the Pacific Ocean. These factors contribute to a more conducive environment for the development of storms. Forecasters have noted that the absence of strong El Niño or La Niña conditions is a significant factor in the predictions. During neutral years, the potential for storm activity can vary widely, creating uncertainty in forecasting approaches. Traditional models consider several other climate variables, including trade winds and moisture availability in the atmosphere. Notably, forecasters have also pointed to cooler tropical water temperatures in comparison to the previous year, which could influence storm development this season. The hurricane season for the Atlantic officially commences on June 1 and lasts until November 30. As the season approaches, experts stress the importance of preparedness for coastal communities that are vulnerable to hurricane impacts. Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, has urged residents to proactively gather supplies and devise an action plan for when storms threaten. As the tropical storm activity is anticipated to gain momentum in June, officials continue to advise vigilance and readiness among residents in hurricane-prone areas.