U.S. risks diplomatic fallout after military strike on Iran

In light of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, many analysts are assessing the potential implications of a military strike on Iran. The strike's objective would be to either decapitate or delegitimize the Islamic Republic, which could fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape of the region. Historically, such military interventions have paved the way for new diplomatic engagements, as seen in past conflicts that led to significant discussions like the Madrid Peace Conference following the 1991 Gulf War. However, the diplomatic aftermath of a similar intervention in Iran remains uncertain. As Iran's regime faces mounting pressure, particularly through various forms of civil unrest, including ongoing strikes impacting over 120 towns and cities, the potential for regime change has sparked discussions about post-action strategies. Countries in the region, particularly those traditionally supportive of Iran's adversaries, have maintained covert ties with Israel, yet reactions from the broader Arab world remain rooted in longstanding refusal to normalize relations with it, as entrenched by the 1967 Arab League Khartoum Declaration. Should the Iranian regime collapse, the question arises regarding the United States' ability to manage the aftermath effectively. The remnants of what has been defined as the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes groups like Hezbollah and various Iraqi militias, pose a significant challenge that could complicate stabilization efforts in the region. Diplomatic initiatives, such as incorporating a post-Islamic Republic Iran into agreements like the Abraham Accords, could present both opportunities and difficulties. The long-sought goal of regional normalization with Israel, contingent upon significant political changes within Iran, may finally be within reach but remains highly risky and uncertain. The historical context suggests that the U.S. has not adequately prepared for the ensuing diplomatic complexities once military action occurs. While military strikes may appear as straightforward solutions to the nuclear threat posed by Iran, they can often mask the far-reaching diplomatic consequences that require careful planning and engagement. Long-term stability depends on not just the immediate military objectives but also on the strategies employed to capitalize on the potential shifts in power dynamics that could arise from regime change.